FSIN Fushin copperweld got my attention today as one of the better performers today. We had a great rally in a down market and the pops are worth noting because most of the money is going into longer term propositions.

Never underestimate the power of CNBC. This afternoon the market was in a slump things were headed south. Everything I follow was performing poorly and had been all day. Around 3pm one of the Nageriam twins, I think it was John, came on the air and said they like CHK(chesapeke natural gas) at these levels. As soon as he said that the stock shoot up like a rocket. There was no coincidental phenomenon here. This stock means something to me especially because I bought 500 shares at $50 in the middle of the summer when I thought it was oversold. Boy was I wrong! Then another 500 at $16.50. I folow this puppy every day and if I had not been watching CNBC today I would have had no idea why the thing shot up. Option monster buys options, hence the name. If option expiration just occurred woudn't there be a lot of option money looking for a home for the next 28 days? I don't know the performance history of option monster but my intuition tells me these guys don't fool around.

Check out gold this week. Newmont and Yamana are both bucking the trend of a down beat markrt.

I'm following BGU and BGZ closely and I anticipate more upward momentum in the bull component of this split. If BGU Breaks out over 40 we have a good chance of continuing up if we go below 30 we are in danger and must switch the focus to BGZ. Any move above or below these levels could indicate a change in direction. I'll be curios to see how this plays out

BTU, CHK, CLR . These are some of todays top performers. They all happen to be energy plays. Peabody energy, a coal name, is up 19% today. Chesapeak up 23%, Continental "oil and gas up 22.44%. Wow it didn't seem as if we would get a bouce so soon but I guess these names have been down so long it had to happen. There were some crucial inventory reports out today indicating an increase in crude reserves. I guess I need to study this more if I want to learn why it could have had an impact on these names.

I dont know how to react to my mutual fund company. They recently sold off top holdings in ATI and bought up Martin Marietta and Eastman Chemical. Am I gettig screwwed? I was just getting used to ATI and anticipated a slow recovery for this specialty metals co. Now I have to spend time to figure out why they are so crazy about. MLM has spiked in price recently and could be a huge "infrastructre" play. That's exactly what I'm worried about. Especially since S&P just downgraded it to crap.

Watch the gains slip away as the market digest the horrible auto sale figures. The markets seem to be moving slower this week. Much more predictable momentum though the day would be a good thing. The oil sector is suffering with RIG down 4.5% today there's not much to look hope full about here, until oil starts trending up.

Wow here is something interesting. Now there is are ETFs that in fact leverage 3 time. Direxion funds are 3x leveraged. So prepare to loose plenty of dough on these bets. BGU goes with the russell 2000. others are TNA ERX,and FAS. There are shorts that go to these as well. BGZ,TZA,ERY,FAZ

EEM Emerging market long. EEV emerging market short. These funds consistantly move 15 to 20 percent up or down on the trading sesion. Beware!

Big market swings seen at the end of the day in recent trading are thought to be a result of leveraged ETFs. The leaveraged funds (aka: ultra) are buying and selling (shorting) at a margin rate of three to one. The major volatile swings in the stock market occur when a back log of these trades flood the system and massive amounts of capital shift the balance in one direction or the other. Somehow at 3pm all the orders for these massively leveraged funds start crossing the wires and that has caused the market to go up or down by 400 plus points at or near the end of the trading sesion.
DDM - Ultra Dow 30
UYG - Ultra Financials
UXI - Ultra Indutrials
USD - Ultra Semiconductor
DIG - Ultra oil and gas
All of these ultra funds have there equivilant twin to the short side as well. One of my favorites has been the EEV(ultra short emerging markets). My big question is how do we determine the ultras are generating market volitility? Do these funds really have the power to move the market up or down 500 points? I get the whole concept of leverage creating more buy or sell orders but why didn't these funds move more than they did on friday? These funds can be a rewarding way to ride the tide in a boat to recovery but it's a lazy way to invest and I don't condone the risk. Google ishares or Proshares, there you can search for ulra longs and shorts.

Wow what a nightmare. The market does not have legs. All the money that causes recent rallies is obviously trading margin. They don't have the money to leave in the market overnight much less over the weekend. I'm surprised Thurdays Action made it past 4 pm. We will see next week what kind of "bottom" formation is created. Trading has been moving sideways for about a month now. If we make some new highs and hold support we could get some momentum. At least it only cost $45 bucks to fill up my SUV.

There was a great letter that came across the etrade site today. The letter was discussing some ways to invest durring the next president's administration.

Infrastructure : GE, FWLT, JEC, FLR, GII

Alternative energy: PBW, QCLN, GEX, PBD

Municiple Bonds: TFI, ITM, SHM, MUB, SMB

BTU FSYS Ill watch these this week. Btu beat earnings by 52%. Fsys earnings up 180%

News to note of today would definitely include the Astra Zeneca anti-hyperlipidemia drug Crestor, is supposed to be much better than everyone thought. Or that is what there new study sais. They are claiming the drug is significant in reducing the risk of severe cardiovascular events. A study called "Jupiter" proves the drug can now be recommend for more folks meaning more drug sales. How do we play this? It can be another hype creation publicity stunt created by the manufacture. If it does create hype and a rally in shares of AZN it would produce a shorting opportunity. In my experience most drug stock are quite manipulated to the downside with bad news it's not a frequent occurrence that one gets talked up and it remains up. In other words this could be a good play but get out before the FDA pulls it off the shelves because it causes liver and kidney damage.

Watching shares of FLR this week. I hope to get a follow thru on last week's wild upswing, 20% pop. I think this is a potential infrastructure play that might get some attention with a regieme change in the USA. Holy FSYS batman a 45% pop in this auto and truck parts suplier. They convert things to run on NAT GAS. I thought this would be a speculative short play trap but somehow they shot up 45% in trading on friday. Something wild is going on. There is a lot of attention being diverted from the Natural Gas plays. We might see some action that could last a few months out of this whole sector.

How could it get worse? Why would anyone sell assets at these levels? Shorts. Shorts who make there money betting on the markets decline continue to wager on the decline. They continue to short the merket. Where's the proof you say? Where are the numbers that support this statement? Well I don't have time to lookup statistics on the percentage of the market that is being shorted. I will hypothesis if mutual funds are inundated with sell orders would it not make sense for them to short the market? They know the markets are going down before they go down. They have the orders. They know the direction of the market! So why not follow the trend? Who would sell asstess at these values? The earnigs are not that low. Most of the best vehicles are trading at 4 to 5 times earnings.

Note : Crammer likes quantas PWR as a wind play. The bailout package had some alternative energy benefits in it. I don't know the details. It might be safe to say alternative energy is a political play that will peter out after the first few year of the new administration.

Sorry for the 10-8 post I will try to keep it all original but this info was worth passing on.

Volitility is here to stay? Who knows. We should buy this market because stocks will rise on anticipation of a recovey. I'm watching enegy and aggriculture. Check the XLF and the MOO. Both etfs are going to recover but keep your powder dry because opportunities present themseves every day. Consumer and health care can also be good recovery plays but the money is not fast enough for me. XLV (health care) is up modestly today and that is what we need for stability, and recovery, good modest increases. Dont forget what happened. It's not like someone fliped a switch and you can't loose anymore money.

The technical indicators point to a stochastic cross on the ulrashort fund QID forcasting a decline on the graph. This can be a very bullish signal for a 2 th 3 month recovery in equity prices across the board.The goverment also sais they will start buying stock in US banks. Another good signal for buying opportunities. I wan't to take advantage of this by looking to buy january calls on some strong earning stocks like MOS or LDK.

Bullins options are good in this environment but if you want to play it safe look at buy-writes. (do your own research at wiki if you dont know what this is). Buy writes pay you the premium on the contracts. You can make some good money here.

Energy pioneers eye offshore wind riches
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5:23 PM ET 10/8/08 Marketwatch
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Few people around the world know how to put up wind farms in the U.S. as well as Hunter Armistead.A financier with a background in fossil fuel power development and finance, Armistead now holds a high-ranking "green collar" job as the chief developer of a flotilla of 20 wind farms in the U.S. for Babcock & Brown , the Australian-based infrastructure, airplane leasing and asset management firm.Even with today's credit crunch and falling energy prices, money continues to flow for new U.S. wind farms, Armistead says, as major wind developers race to build the nation's first offshore project.While facing a shortage of turbines and equipment, a phalanx of government regulations, and testy opposition from coastal communities worried about turbine-obstructed views of the sea, the stormy Atlantic and other locations nevertheless beckon with the promise of some of the richest rewards in the business.Offshore wind promises clean, ample energy in areas that fetch some of the highest electrical rates in the U.S. So while offshore turbines are expected to cost 50% to 70% more to build than land-based systems, they may generate 100% more revenue, wind advocates point out.Besides Babcock & Brown, most the other major onshore wind developers are also diving into the offshore wind craze in some capacity: Energias de Portugal (EDP Group), Iberdrola Renewables, FPL Group (FPL) and Gamesa, among others."The U.S. is kind of like a lumbering giant that's waking up to the fact that they need to come into the world of energy independence," said Armistead, head of Babcock & Brown's North American Energy Development Group. "In the U.S., there's tons of wind."Investing in windWhile no pure-play wind companies trade in the U.S., there are a few ways for investors to tap into any future success in the emerging business.The American Wind Energy Association lists utility giant FPL Group Inc.. (FPL) as the largest company developing U.S.-based wind projects. General Electric (GE) marks the only U.S.-based manufacturer of turbines.Vestas, the world's leading manufacturer of wind turbines, and Nordex, another turbine maker, both trade on the Copenhagen Exchange. Mitsubishi, which trades in Japan, makes some of the largest turbines now in use.Several environmentally-oriented mutual funds and exchange traded funds also provide exposure to wind energy. One such vehicle is the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN).Babcock & Brown bundles up wind farms assets for its Babcock & Brown Wind Partners, a publicly traded wind energy fund in Australia.Industry proponents also point out that the most convenient way for Americans to support wind power development is by participating in green power programs offered by utility companies.Usually more expensive now, green energy rates could become more competitive if the environmental costs of carbon emissions from coal-fired electric plants and other sources get factored into rates under cap-and-trade programs now underway in parts of the U.S. The cost of alternative energy will also come down as it gains in economies of scale.Plenty of challenges face wind development, including a lack of transmission lines, the at-times intermittent nature of wind power, and uncertainties over production tax credits.Rich prospects off shoreIn the global race to build offshore wind turbines to feed a power-hungry grid, Europe leads the U.S. by a score of 1,110 megawatts to zero.With the potential to supply as much as 20% of the U.S.'s growing and critical electrical power needs, proponents often refer to America as the Saudi Arabia of wind. But while giant turbines star in political ads this fall, the U.S. still gets only about 1% of its electricity from breezes. That's starting to change as Texas, California, and many other states complete new land-based wind farms, prodded along by state-enforced renewable portfolio standards. With carbon emissions now auctioned off under the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, wind power could soon offer an additional value as a carbon offsetting vehicle.So far, U.S. offshore wind projects have been scuttled by community opposition, such as the notorious Cape Wind development about five miles off the Massachusetts shore, stymied for years by opponents that included some of the wealthiest residents along Nantucket Sound. Despite the chilly reception, Babcock & Brown moved to leverage its sizeable presence in the onshore market and moved to buy offshore wind developer Bluewater Wind of Hoboken, N.J., for an undisclosed sum in 2007. At the time, Bluewater Wind had been selected to negotiate a contract to provide power in Delaware."We became convinced that the offshore technology had been maturing in Europe and there was good market fundamentals in the Northeast for offshore wind," Babcock & Brown's Armistead said. "The time is arriving for offshore wind in the U.S. and the Bluewater team had a head start."The effort paid off this summer as Bluewater Wind inked the nation's first offshore power purchase agreement in a pact with Delmarva Power, a unit of Pepco Holdings Inc. (POM). With the project's 440-foot towers planned for construction some 12 miles out at sea, Armistead said the wind turbines will be much less visible than others already proposed around the country. The Delaware project and others will take another step forward after the end of the year, when the U.S. Minerals Management Service completes leasing rules for offshore energy projects. See related story.Armistead said Bluewater Wind is now working to draw bids from turbine developers and vendors, in the face of a backlog in equipment. "We're concentrating on the East Coast because the shallow sea floor makes it ideal for offshore wind development," Armistead said. "The continental shelf goes out pretty far and that's really attractive. The wind is strong and the visual aspects are negated."Other projects off the Atlantic coast are also under review in New York and elsewhere, with participation from Bluewater Wind and others. Last month, the State of Rhode Island chose Deepwater Wind to develop a $1 billion wind farm off its coast. Deepwater Wind lists deep-pocketed investors such as First Wind, asset management giant D.E. Shaw and Ospraie Management, an alternative energy asset manager.Babcock & Brown's Armistead maintains that the economics of offshore wind development continue to make sense, although the cost of construction could range 50% to 70% higher than on-shore development.Babcock & Brown's biggest land-based project, Gulf Wind in Texas, will cost about $600 million to build 118 giant turbines to generate 283 megawatts of electric power.Factoring in the current U.S. production tax credit, and a cost of about $5 million for each giant turbine, Babcock & Brown will recoup its investment within seven to nine years, he said.The demand for such projects remains relatively strong, with the value of the electricity and power purchase agreements with utility companies forming the foundation.With offshore wind, similar economics could make the business viable, especially when factoring in the significantly higher price and demand for electricity on the Eastern Seaboard.Brian Uhlmer, senior analyst with Pritchard Capital Partners, said traditional oil and gas drilling rig operators may try to sell their wares to boost the offshore wind, since the industry plans to build in areas less than 400 feet deep -- already in the realm of the shallow water jack-up rig market.Uhlmer noted that General Electric bought oil services firm Vetgo Gray Inc. with plans to develop patents and methods for installing wind turbines on offshore oil rigs."A lot of oil service firms have old rigs that could possibly hold a wind turbine," he said. "The jack-up rigs can go in up to 400 feet of water. Some of the proposed offshore wind farms are only in 200 feet."Even if the old jack-up rigs aren't used, the offshore wind turbines will require some drilling to lay down undersea foundations, he pointed out.Down the road, the offshore wind business could provide a lift for Hercules Offshore (HERO), Pride International (PDE), or Oceaneering International (OII), he said.With lobbying efforts in Washington picking up from the likes of Google (GOOG), Boone Pickens and others, Congress finally moved ahead with plans to renew a production tax credit to fuel industry growth. See full story.Still, the U.S. has a long way to go to catch up to Europe, led by Britain and Denmark, which both boast more than 400 megawatts of offshore wind power.For Armistead, the wind energy business continues to draw him in with its potential."Wind is very fascinating," he said. "It's very capital intensive. It requires a background in finance to arrange capital and get the construction done, but projects come quickly on the development side. For me, it's an excellent combination of development and finance that happens relatively quickly."

I thought I has through with stocks altogether. But the signs continually point to the biggest oversold condition of all time. Yep it's time to buy. Even though the credit mess will take the economy down you have to call a bottom. We almost saw these extremes to the upside 2 years ago. Like then none of the technicians were calling for a reversal of the trends yet it happened. Now, none of the technicians are calling for and end to the downtrend. they dont want to call a bottom when it could keep falling. I dont want to be heroic but come on !! how can the people in charge (those who orchestrated the credit colapse) make any more gambles on a continued downturn. They have to take off the short positions sooner than later. How can hedge funds afford to sell their assests at such depressed values?Somethings not adding up.

Every day from 9:30 to 10:00 the markets drop off. Possible one of these banks liquidating at the open. They have too much to sell all at once so they have been streetch it out over time.

Hedge fund vs Mutual fund. Hedge funds are responsible for the liquidations we have seen in our markets. They are over leveraged and have exposure to the downside. That's why they call them hedge funds. Some hedge funds are probably over protected to the downside and like what happened in financial stocks they can create a profit from a selling frenzie. Who knows when the end will come but it will. The market can't keep going down forever. I would wait for sustained buying signals. If not, you will get wipped out every time they "sell the rally".

FLOWERS foods and RAH are still doing well in a safety market. RAH looks overbought. If people start piling back in the market this safety play will reverse and we will see a shorting opportunity. Perhaps a good time to look into a bearish put strategy.

This market is easy to figure out. Take the most logical move and do the opposite. I thought the shorts would keep going up and up but look what happened. The market stopped going down. I guess we were over sold and based on that the shorts are more risky. All signs now point to a rally after next weeks options expiration. Any rally could be over before it comes. In other words if a rally should come next week it might not. Now that I think of it, when the options expire and people move that money where does it go? I'm bouncing any ideas around. I have to get in this market at these levels.

view my post from Monday Sept 29th. every thing listed there is up huge today.

What part of GS Goldman Sachs is going up? MSNQ, what is this equity and how do I invest in it?It was up 100% today.

Did anyone see what happened to EEV today? The Short play on emerging markets I metioned a few days ago is up 12% today. Well we all must agree making money is better than loosing it.

I'm watching c-span and I'm getting a kick out of the wrangling between Barney Frank from Massachusettes and Congressman Spencer Bauchus from Alabama. They seem to love to argue with each other. Boy I'm showing my age. I thought I'd never actually watch C-Span. My Attention span is getting shorter as I try to figure out If they will pass the finacial markets bill. Washington now holds the fate of the free world in their hands. Did anyone take note the impending threat from terrorist. Now the our nation is at it's weakest shouldn't this is the time to attack. Right? Oh I forgot the our forreign wars are being fought against enemys who cant touch us. Good thing right. Lets face it - property values are so low in USA now nobody want's to aquire us in a military overtaking. Defending our country should have been our mission in the first place not millitary agression. We took our eye off the ball. Now that we have ignorred the economy while fighting imaginary wars we must play catch up on the stuff that really mates to Americans, money.

Back to food procesors, Bunge BG has an attractive pull back and good earnings. I will need to do more research to find out why this stock has fallen.

Senate approved bailout plan but will it fly in the house? That's the $700 billion dollar question.

ERII a small cap end of the world water rescourses play

Big leader today NCC

RSU, it's like a double long, extra risky and rough around the edges. Just how I like them.

Maybe the "rich" concocted this whole bailout scheem in order to exploit the "richer"(the government). Who knows, it maybe easier to wreck the market than we all think.

Verasun = ethanol = volitility

opps you get the point...

As a health care worker I have cared for a lot of patients without health insurance. If someone comes into the ER with a life threatening injury, chances are they will get medical help. If our congress does not "treat" our economy it's like letting a patient die in the street.

Government has a moral obilgation to first do no harm. Like in medincine, doing nothing can cause more harm than sitting by doing nothing.Watching our economy fail while waiting for the markets to "work themselfs out" is not an option.

Failure can be very profitable for those "in the know". Our government does not think our economy is capable of complete and total failure. I guess we have nothing to worry about.

ONE OF THE WORST DAYS IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY!!!
Oh well,I'm out of the game. I almost owe money on my brokerage account. But look at what these etf's did today:
QID 19%
DXD 11%
SDS 15%
TWM 15%
SSG 18%
SKF 19%
SMN 20%
REW 14%

There's allways a ways to make money. Keep tryin'

mdt is having a good year

Holly cow, what happened to MOO? This was going to be the smartest thing since sliced bread. There was a real concern that the agriculture economy was getting too hot and gues what happened? The bottom fell out. How much have the fundamental really changed for the bullish long term outlook in agriculture? It might be a buy here.

Who is WESTPORT and should I buy them. WPRT has gone up fast. Why? people think there will be natural gas cars soon? get real, there won't be anything to come of this natural gas speculation and you know it. Short this stock now.

Here's another one. Diamond foods DMND. Doing well in the "resesion"

Some interesting companies I found:Ralcorp, RAH. A food stock. The POST cerial company. They are doing well in the current low growth environment. Nicor : symbol GAS, They ship natual gas and do container shipping in the caribian. Nicor is an energy play. Both of these have shot up in the last 3 months so chances are they will go back down. So dont buy them or you moght loose money.

Christopher Cox a scapegoat? Maybe not. There doesn't seem to be any one who can put out the fires started by the short sellers, not even the head of the SEC.

wow. so many bank failures. Now the ones that are left are merging. Wachovia buying Morgan Stanley? Option are calling for more volitility. I think it's time to buy USO

I'm still watching the SOXX semiconductor index

I thought I was bad at picking stocks but after looking back I'm glad I do listen to my better senses. Look at a three year chart on these CMG,CROX,AIG. Wow if I was better at shorting these are what I'd be looking at.

Many serious market analyst are still saying the market is not safe and is 3 to 5 years out until a profit can be realized. Well guess what, when things turned bad most were not forecasting a cessation of the major up trends we experienced in 2005~2007. My take is a big bottom could be in or a big decline could be ahead. Nothing for the next six months will be plain and ordinary. We could see another oversold bounce based on today's action that is quite possible. Today we saw a late rally after some speculation that a hedge fund "liquidation process" could be over. My guess is that firms keep liquidating, we see a dollar snap back after the quick gains, oil starts going back up, and more banks come under suspicion of failing. Or perhaps the contrary, no one knows. That is what makes these issues so interesting. Only the hard core players can figure out these anomalies and trade them. Today we saw gains in agriculture, most the names in the MOO went up. Most names in the KOL are up. The XLB didn't do much except for Monsanto. The biggest news is still Lehman Bros trying to find a buyer, down 43% today. China Steel exports up big, look at the cheap china steel play creeping back on the scene. RIMM has a new blackberry but no thanks I already have a phone and the cell phone company want to charge me a few hundred bucks to switch. That money was spent on gas. No wonder thier stock is down 17% in 3 months. OK, yes, I admit that does look like a bottom in RIMM.
RIO is stuck in the mud as commodities in general are out of favor. Ike is churning the gulf but as we learned before this is a storm not a stock and should not be traded.

Looks bad, really bad, Hedge fund Osprey failed. liquidation and panic on wall street. Lehmann Brothers going down. Violent volitility. All oil and natural rescources are in free fall. Potash nearly cut in half. RIO, MOS loosing ten percent a day. I try not to panic as I see my life savings, inheritance, 401 vannish in a matter of months. Can anyone say OVERSOLD!!!!! Are we in for another 50% decline in the major averages like it was in 2001 ~2003? Crammer said the liquidation will lasts throgh tueaday maybe even longer. Historically there has been a rebound after the election(except for one time out of like 50 times). This decline is getting me down simply because I am invested in good companies that turn good profit. Turn off the computer and check back next year. You will either break even or be forced to sell your home.

Finally Fannie and Freddie wipped off the map or so we hope. The groundhog day effect might be terminated. We should have an interesting news week ahead, positive or negative for the markets? We will have to wait and see. Like I said a short sqeeze rally played out on fertilizers and we got a 8% pop in Potash and Mos. Too bad if you got in early like I did. Well at least I've halved my losses.

Watching oil and fertilizer today due to the big drops we have seen lately. I will watch to see if oil continues a precipitous decline. CLNE is off to the races. I have broke even on FSYS

In the news today is a big commodity sell off. All the basic material stocks are way down. This could provide great opportunities. Energy, coal, steel, all down big. There is a rumor that this is a process of major liquidation by a major firm. If there is a recovery in China look at XIN. A major realestate operation in China. These guys will go lower if there continues to be fears of a "Global Slowdown." Like the USA it will be overstated and this stock could bottom very soon.

watch for the short squeeze rally in Potash

Sittin' on a really bad position in GLW. A lot of people thought this would be a great post recession consumer comback, gas is down, stimulus check, recovery play. But nooooo, LCD production is down 10% due to week demand. I guess if you want to make money off this one you would have to wait a few months when we really get a comeback. I'm trying not to make a panic sale but I'ts hard to even look at this one. First Solar is back in buying range FSLR. XHB home builders index has had a great run and home depot thinks housing is back. FSYS is off to the races. CLNE is overbought. Oil is oversold. Nat gas is way way down. I mentioned PNY yesturday and it just keeps going up despite the decline in it's peers. MTZ is going up.

Diamond in the rough

PNY piedmont natural gas is up today while all of its peers are down following a less than destuctive storm in the gulf. Most of the energy and commodity sector is in the tank today. If your buying on the dips get out your wallet. DTO double short oil is one of the higest gainers on my radar today, as well as DUG(oil short).

When playing the markets today if you are not confused, you are not paying attention. We have two big storms in the the Caribbean and yet oil is down $2. All the nat gas and oil stocks are down respectively. The way to play here is to buy the dips. The bearish supply report for nat gas does indicate a need to tread with caution and use stops for any momentum trade. Good gas plays here are CHK, DVP,UPL,PNY. Or the risky speculative plays CLNE, FSYS.

The economy is looking up in general with a 3+gdp. Where are all the recession dudes and the technicians who claim another 25% decline in equities like we saw in 2001-2003 era?I have not heard "recession" on CNBC but one time today and that was to say there is not one.

ATI is gaining on $50 and forming what looks like a base. Cramer still does not like it because he caught a double on this one in it's initial run. He wont go back even if it's good. With all the missle defense stuff going on in Poland the prospects of defence spending still look good. This could change if we get a democrat though.

Some trouble in solar land. Solar fun falls more the 13 %. Whats that all about? All whopping 4 analyst (Reuters, S&P, and Thompson, Collins Stewart)claim slightly bullish sentiment for this goofy sounding equity. Solar stocks in general did well today, SOL +3.25%, LDK +5.95%, FSLR+1.55%. Solar stocks kicked ass today. so why the solar fun folly?

The action today, as explained in my news feed from etrade, profits are rising but gross margins are "under pressure". What does this spell out for the rest of solar? I am hopping that this was just an overreaction and we could see a slight bounce tomorrow or it could be a precursor to a giant drag on the entire solar equity market. In my opinion, no one should invest with anything that contains "fun" in its' name.

While studying option strategies I am looking at one to five day action in this stock. If you bought the slightly out of the money call yesterday you'd be out 78%. If you would have hedged with the equal side "put" you would have gained 40% on the put. That means if you bought both in a so called hedge your 78% loss would have been only 38%. The 5 day position would have been even more catastrophic. I'm still trying to learn the actuality of option hedging efficiency.

Today's outperformers - LDK solar, LNR and kbh home builders, FTO oil, FRO water transportation. Be carfull playing this market. Too much buying too fast to sustain a follow thru the weekend.

Typical 10:30 turning point for today's early gains in solar. Financials are strong, oil is wilting, lennar homes is soaring.

I'm slowly discovering when my good stocks go down it's because of the shorts, the folks who bet the value of a stock goes down. When the short position gets into risky teritory they tend to switch into a buying position(to cover). If I can figure out when the decline in a stock's price gets into risky teritory for a short position I can spot a bottom, or at least theorize one. The time frames for these transitions can vary from the measured volitility for the day, minute, hour, or the time frame can be months, weeks, days. In reference to the longer terms transitions usually occur in the three month time frame. If you narrow it down further a five day trend usually can be all to expect for a swing in either direction. If you look into daytime trends it's much more complicated. Trends tend to reverse based on the news. Tropical storms for example can cause a spike in natural gas if they develop into a hurricane. If a hurricane turns into a tropical storm the trend might reverse to the down side. If the money moves out of gas and oil(provided there is money moving into the market) you might see a trend reversal in other areas such as financial or healthcare positions to the up side. Sounds simple right?

Today I'm watching a short term reverse in natural gas to the down side after a trpical storm broke apart aver Haiti. The trend will reverse again as the storm reforms in the gulf. I'm not going to tell you to take profit in the destructive forces of nature, but the other stocks this impacts can make or break your day in the market. Airlines might go down if the weather gets bad because they like low fuel prices.

now oil is back up, I'm so nauseated by this inconsistency.

Tricked again, oil is going back down due to a big gain in inventories. Oil stocks got set up higher so the shorts could pile in at the right time and rape the gains.

Gainers in the morning HK, XTO, STP, BEXP Weekly crude invintories are sure to move the market and based on the action this morning we will get bullish figures.

The price of oil is ticking up, look at energy today

All of my "great performers" took another dive tuesday with the exception of ENER. Energy conversion devices is a solar play that gained notariety a few months ago when solar was heating up (pardon the pun). With the market going down it's hard for anything to be worth buying. Low and behold I'm having a good day with LDK,FSYS,and RIG. I had to get out of ESRX due to margin requirements. Today the general news is oil services up due to lowering crude production, financials lower generally because the suck, and the PPI indicating higher interest rates. Fannie and Freddie are lower due to freddie issuing debt bonds. Target slowing down groth and forcasts.

Good performers that took a tumble Monday, SNDK, ENER,KDN,AMAT,FTO,APWR

Oil Rebound? Commodity market bottom? What's been fueling our fledgling rally is not quite a mystery but will it all end when we see oil tick to the upside? There are soo many different oppinions out there who knows whats right. Cramer is taking a bearish side of some of the more popular energy plays like CHK and RIG. Why ? Because he lost us lots of money, that's why. He said to buy Rig at 140(now 125) He said it was the year of natural gas(15% decline across the board). Anyone who has lost money feels bad but when your oppinion looses other people money you tend to feel worse. I guess thats why he recomends selling these names today. If listening to Cramer looses me money I wonder if betting against him will make me some "Mad Money?" I'm confused.

New week abound and the buzz is undervaued energy. XTO, BTU,CHK. all on the rebound. Markets are up before trading hours setting a good tone for the day. The strength in the dollar might not help export growth so watch for pitfalls in the "dollar rally"

Russia is still on the military offensive in pipeline county. Oil is down another buck and no one can figure out why. Brasil just found more light sweet crude 150 miles off the coast of Rio. why does this matter? Because it impacts our stock market or it is supposed to. With all the news we have not see oil go up, it's gone down. Oil has gone down farther but our big dow stocks are not still going up. This market is turning and new advancers are comming out. Chemical/fertilizer names are up today bouncing off huge drawbacks. Solar stocks are on a tear but these advances usually dont last long. Solar is mostly reacting to LDK which is tripling profits.

I'm watching what the Russian army is doing to our stock market. If they continue their invasion of Georgia and don't rapidly win we could see stocks tumble. Why? Well if they are not successful the war could expand sending up the price of oil. This would have a negative effect on the US stock market. I wish the decline in oil would stabilize however because my stake in RIG is dwindling.

What kiills me about CNBC is their cumulative view of the markets change on a day by day basis. One day doom and gloom the next day everything is ok. Today they were saying the current economic environment classifies as a "cub" market. I guess they can't call it a bull market if stock don't keep going down. Well at least it makes it easy to gadge how the market are going to do for the day. All you have to do is get a feel for the commentary. It just bugs me to hear the flip flop point of views every day.

Friday Buy back

They bought em back friday, huge gains in home depot and McDonalds. One pop in Fuel Systems solutions might be overdone, but carful here in this market. No luck for minning or oil servicees. Rio fell agian, Rig fell again. About RIG - when will it turn? This company is doubling profits and has order backlogs, what gives? Im thinking it's a buying opportunity.

Thursdays selloff

The markets sold heavily on thursday due to bad news about major financial companies. The data on the housing sector showed improvement. Were we not waiting to rally after housing bottomed?Is this improvement in housing data for real? We find out friday to see if the ailing financials trump housing. Semiconductors were good on Thursday, so was wireless services such as Sprint.