When playing the markets today if you are not confused, you are not paying attention. We have two big storms in the the Caribbean and yet oil is down $2. All the nat gas and oil stocks are down respectively. The way to play here is to buy the dips. The bearish supply report for nat gas does indicate a need to tread with caution and use stops for any momentum trade. Good gas plays here are CHK, DVP,UPL,PNY. Or the risky speculative plays CLNE, FSYS.

The economy is looking up in general with a 3+gdp. Where are all the recession dudes and the technicians who claim another 25% decline in equities like we saw in 2001-2003 era?I have not heard "recession" on CNBC but one time today and that was to say there is not one.

ATI is gaining on $50 and forming what looks like a base. Cramer still does not like it because he caught a double on this one in it's initial run. He wont go back even if it's good. With all the missle defense stuff going on in Poland the prospects of defence spending still look good. This could change if we get a democrat though.

Some trouble in solar land. Solar fun falls more the 13 %. Whats that all about? All whopping 4 analyst (Reuters, S&P, and Thompson, Collins Stewart)claim slightly bullish sentiment for this goofy sounding equity. Solar stocks in general did well today, SOL +3.25%, LDK +5.95%, FSLR+1.55%. Solar stocks kicked ass today. so why the solar fun folly?

The action today, as explained in my news feed from etrade, profits are rising but gross margins are "under pressure". What does this spell out for the rest of solar? I am hopping that this was just an overreaction and we could see a slight bounce tomorrow or it could be a precursor to a giant drag on the entire solar equity market. In my opinion, no one should invest with anything that contains "fun" in its' name.

While studying option strategies I am looking at one to five day action in this stock. If you bought the slightly out of the money call yesterday you'd be out 78%. If you would have hedged with the equal side "put" you would have gained 40% on the put. That means if you bought both in a so called hedge your 78% loss would have been only 38%. The 5 day position would have been even more catastrophic. I'm still trying to learn the actuality of option hedging efficiency.

Today's outperformers - LDK solar, LNR and kbh home builders, FTO oil, FRO water transportation. Be carfull playing this market. Too much buying too fast to sustain a follow thru the weekend.

Typical 10:30 turning point for today's early gains in solar. Financials are strong, oil is wilting, lennar homes is soaring.

I'm slowly discovering when my good stocks go down it's because of the shorts, the folks who bet the value of a stock goes down. When the short position gets into risky teritory they tend to switch into a buying position(to cover). If I can figure out when the decline in a stock's price gets into risky teritory for a short position I can spot a bottom, or at least theorize one. The time frames for these transitions can vary from the measured volitility for the day, minute, hour, or the time frame can be months, weeks, days. In reference to the longer terms transitions usually occur in the three month time frame. If you narrow it down further a five day trend usually can be all to expect for a swing in either direction. If you look into daytime trends it's much more complicated. Trends tend to reverse based on the news. Tropical storms for example can cause a spike in natural gas if they develop into a hurricane. If a hurricane turns into a tropical storm the trend might reverse to the down side. If the money moves out of gas and oil(provided there is money moving into the market) you might see a trend reversal in other areas such as financial or healthcare positions to the up side. Sounds simple right?

Today I'm watching a short term reverse in natural gas to the down side after a trpical storm broke apart aver Haiti. The trend will reverse again as the storm reforms in the gulf. I'm not going to tell you to take profit in the destructive forces of nature, but the other stocks this impacts can make or break your day in the market. Airlines might go down if the weather gets bad because they like low fuel prices.

now oil is back up, I'm so nauseated by this inconsistency.

Tricked again, oil is going back down due to a big gain in inventories. Oil stocks got set up higher so the shorts could pile in at the right time and rape the gains.

Gainers in the morning HK, XTO, STP, BEXP Weekly crude invintories are sure to move the market and based on the action this morning we will get bullish figures.

The price of oil is ticking up, look at energy today

All of my "great performers" took another dive tuesday with the exception of ENER. Energy conversion devices is a solar play that gained notariety a few months ago when solar was heating up (pardon the pun). With the market going down it's hard for anything to be worth buying. Low and behold I'm having a good day with LDK,FSYS,and RIG. I had to get out of ESRX due to margin requirements. Today the general news is oil services up due to lowering crude production, financials lower generally because the suck, and the PPI indicating higher interest rates. Fannie and Freddie are lower due to freddie issuing debt bonds. Target slowing down groth and forcasts.

Good performers that took a tumble Monday, SNDK, ENER,KDN,AMAT,FTO,APWR

Oil Rebound? Commodity market bottom? What's been fueling our fledgling rally is not quite a mystery but will it all end when we see oil tick to the upside? There are soo many different oppinions out there who knows whats right. Cramer is taking a bearish side of some of the more popular energy plays like CHK and RIG. Why ? Because he lost us lots of money, that's why. He said to buy Rig at 140(now 125) He said it was the year of natural gas(15% decline across the board). Anyone who has lost money feels bad but when your oppinion looses other people money you tend to feel worse. I guess thats why he recomends selling these names today. If listening to Cramer looses me money I wonder if betting against him will make me some "Mad Money?" I'm confused.

New week abound and the buzz is undervaued energy. XTO, BTU,CHK. all on the rebound. Markets are up before trading hours setting a good tone for the day. The strength in the dollar might not help export growth so watch for pitfalls in the "dollar rally"

Russia is still on the military offensive in pipeline county. Oil is down another buck and no one can figure out why. Brasil just found more light sweet crude 150 miles off the coast of Rio. why does this matter? Because it impacts our stock market or it is supposed to. With all the news we have not see oil go up, it's gone down. Oil has gone down farther but our big dow stocks are not still going up. This market is turning and new advancers are comming out. Chemical/fertilizer names are up today bouncing off huge drawbacks. Solar stocks are on a tear but these advances usually dont last long. Solar is mostly reacting to LDK which is tripling profits.

I'm watching what the Russian army is doing to our stock market. If they continue their invasion of Georgia and don't rapidly win we could see stocks tumble. Why? Well if they are not successful the war could expand sending up the price of oil. This would have a negative effect on the US stock market. I wish the decline in oil would stabilize however because my stake in RIG is dwindling.

What kiills me about CNBC is their cumulative view of the markets change on a day by day basis. One day doom and gloom the next day everything is ok. Today they were saying the current economic environment classifies as a "cub" market. I guess they can't call it a bull market if stock don't keep going down. Well at least it makes it easy to gadge how the market are going to do for the day. All you have to do is get a feel for the commentary. It just bugs me to hear the flip flop point of views every day.

Friday Buy back

They bought em back friday, huge gains in home depot and McDonalds. One pop in Fuel Systems solutions might be overdone, but carful here in this market. No luck for minning or oil servicees. Rio fell agian, Rig fell again. About RIG - when will it turn? This company is doubling profits and has order backlogs, what gives? Im thinking it's a buying opportunity.

Thursdays selloff

The markets sold heavily on thursday due to bad news about major financial companies. The data on the housing sector showed improvement. Were we not waiting to rally after housing bottomed?Is this improvement in housing data for real? We find out friday to see if the ailing financials trump housing. Semiconductors were good on Thursday, so was wireless services such as Sprint.