I'm slowly discovering when my good stocks go down it's because of the shorts, the folks who bet the value of a stock goes down. When the short position gets into risky teritory they tend to switch into a buying position(to cover). If I can figure out when the decline in a stock's price gets into risky teritory for a short position I can spot a bottom, or at least theorize one. The time frames for these transitions can vary from the measured volitility for the day, minute, hour, or the time frame can be months, weeks, days. In reference to the longer terms transitions usually occur in the three month time frame. If you narrow it down further a five day trend usually can be all to expect for a swing in either direction. If you look into daytime trends it's much more complicated. Trends tend to reverse based on the news. Tropical storms for example can cause a spike in natural gas if they develop into a hurricane. If a hurricane turns into a tropical storm the trend might reverse to the down side. If the money moves out of gas and oil(provided there is money moving into the market) you might see a trend reversal in other areas such as financial or healthcare positions to the up side. Sounds simple right?

Today I'm watching a short term reverse in natural gas to the down side after a trpical storm broke apart aver Haiti. The trend will reverse again as the storm reforms in the gulf. I'm not going to tell you to take profit in the destructive forces of nature, but the other stocks this impacts can make or break your day in the market. Airlines might go down if the weather gets bad because they like low fuel prices.