Tuesday, September 30, 2008
As a health care worker I have cared for a lot of patients without health insurance. If someone comes into the ER with a life threatening injury, chances are they will get medical help. If our congress does not "treat" our economy it's like letting a patient die in the street.
Government has a moral obilgation to first do no harm. Like in medincine, doing nothing can cause more harm than sitting by doing nothing.Watching our economy fail while waiting for the markets to "work themselfs out" is not an option.
Failure can be very profitable for those "in the know". Our government does not think our economy is capable of complete and total failure. I guess we have nothing to worry about.
Government has a moral obilgation to first do no harm. Like in medincine, doing nothing can cause more harm than sitting by doing nothing.Watching our economy fail while waiting for the markets to "work themselfs out" is not an option.
Failure can be very profitable for those "in the know". Our government does not think our economy is capable of complete and total failure. I guess we have nothing to worry about.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
Holly cow, what happened to MOO? This was going to be the smartest thing since sliced bread. There was a real concern that the agriculture economy was getting too hot and gues what happened? The bottom fell out. How much have the fundamental really changed for the bullish long term outlook in agriculture? It might be a buy here.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Some interesting companies I found:Ralcorp, RAH. A food stock. The POST cerial company. They are doing well in the current low growth environment. Nicor : symbol GAS, They ship natual gas and do container shipping in the caribian. Nicor is an energy play. Both of these have shot up in the last 3 months so chances are they will go back down. So dont buy them or you moght loose money.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Many serious market analyst are still saying the market is not safe and is 3 to 5 years out until a profit can be realized. Well guess what, when things turned bad most were not forecasting a cessation of the major up trends we experienced in 2005~2007. My take is a big bottom could be in or a big decline could be ahead. Nothing for the next six months will be plain and ordinary. We could see another oversold bounce based on today's action that is quite possible. Today we saw a late rally after some speculation that a hedge fund "liquidation process" could be over. My guess is that firms keep liquidating, we see a dollar snap back after the quick gains, oil starts going back up, and more banks come under suspicion of failing. Or perhaps the contrary, no one knows. That is what makes these issues so interesting. Only the hard core players can figure out these anomalies and trade them. Today we saw gains in agriculture, most the names in the MOO went up. Most names in the KOL are up. The XLB didn't do much except for Monsanto. The biggest news is still Lehman Bros trying to find a buyer, down 43% today. China Steel exports up big, look at the cheap china steel play creeping back on the scene. RIMM has a new blackberry but no thanks I already have a phone and the cell phone company want to charge me a few hundred bucks to switch. That money was spent on gas. No wonder thier stock is down 17% in 3 months. OK, yes, I admit that does look like a bottom in RIMM.
RIO is stuck in the mud as commodities in general are out of favor. Ike is churning the gulf but as we learned before this is a storm not a stock and should not be traded.
RIO is stuck in the mud as commodities in general are out of favor. Ike is churning the gulf but as we learned before this is a storm not a stock and should not be traded.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Looks bad, really bad, Hedge fund Osprey failed. liquidation and panic on wall street. Lehmann Brothers going down. Violent volitility. All oil and natural rescources are in free fall. Potash nearly cut in half. RIO, MOS loosing ten percent a day. I try not to panic as I see my life savings, inheritance, 401 vannish in a matter of months. Can anyone say OVERSOLD!!!!! Are we in for another 50% decline in the major averages like it was in 2001 ~2003? Crammer said the liquidation will lasts throgh tueaday maybe even longer. Historically there has been a rebound after the election(except for one time out of like 50 times). This decline is getting me down simply because I am invested in good companies that turn good profit. Turn off the computer and check back next year. You will either break even or be forced to sell your home.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Finally Fannie and Freddie wipped off the map or so we hope. The groundhog day effect might be terminated. We should have an interesting news week ahead, positive or negative for the markets? We will have to wait and see. Like I said a short sqeeze rally played out on fertilizers and we got a 8% pop in Potash and Mos. Too bad if you got in early like I did. Well at least I've halved my losses.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
In the news today is a big commodity sell off. All the basic material stocks are way down. This could provide great opportunities. Energy, coal, steel, all down big. There is a rumor that this is a process of major liquidation by a major firm. If there is a recovery in China look at XIN. A major realestate operation in China. These guys will go lower if there continues to be fears of a "Global Slowdown." Like the USA it will be overstated and this stock could bottom very soon.
Sittin' on a really bad position in GLW. A lot of people thought this would be a great post recession consumer comback, gas is down, stimulus check, recovery play. But nooooo, LCD production is down 10% due to week demand. I guess if you want to make money off this one you would have to wait a few months when we really get a comeback. I'm trying not to make a panic sale but I'ts hard to even look at this one. First Solar is back in buying range FSLR. XHB home builders index has had a great run and home depot thinks housing is back. FSYS is off to the races. CLNE is overbought. Oil is oversold. Nat gas is way way down. I mentioned PNY yesturday and it just keeps going up despite the decline in it's peers. MTZ is going up.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Diamond in the rough
PNY piedmont natural gas is up today while all of its peers are down following a less than destuctive storm in the gulf. Most of the energy and commodity sector is in the tank today. If your buying on the dips get out your wallet. DTO double short oil is one of the higest gainers on my radar today, as well as DUG(oil short).
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