Monday, October 27, 2008
How could it get worse? Why would anyone sell assets at these levels? Shorts. Shorts who make there money betting on the markets decline continue to wager on the decline. They continue to short the merket. Where's the proof you say? Where are the numbers that support this statement? Well I don't have time to lookup statistics on the percentage of the market that is being shorted. I will hypothesis if mutual funds are inundated with sell orders would it not make sense for them to short the market? They know the markets are going down before they go down. They have the orders. They know the direction of the market! So why not follow the trend? Who would sell asstess at these values? The earnigs are not that low. Most of the best vehicles are trading at 4 to 5 times earnings.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Volitility is here to stay? Who knows. We should buy this market because stocks will rise on anticipation of a recovey. I'm watching enegy and aggriculture. Check the XLF and the MOO. Both etfs are going to recover but keep your powder dry because opportunities present themseves every day. Consumer and health care can also be good recovery plays but the money is not fast enough for me. XLV (health care) is up modestly today and that is what we need for stability, and recovery, good modest increases. Dont forget what happened. It's not like someone fliped a switch and you can't loose anymore money.
The technical indicators point to a stochastic cross on the ulrashort fund QID forcasting a decline on the graph. This can be a very bullish signal for a 2 th 3 month recovery in equity prices across the board.The goverment also sais they will start buying stock in US banks. Another good signal for buying opportunities. I wan't to take advantage of this by looking to buy january calls on some strong earning stocks like MOS or LDK.
Bullins options are good in this environment but if you want to play it safe look at buy-writes. (do your own research at wiki if you dont know what this is). Buy writes pay you the premium on the contracts. You can make some good money here.
The technical indicators point to a stochastic cross on the ulrashort fund QID forcasting a decline on the graph. This can be a very bullish signal for a 2 th 3 month recovery in equity prices across the board.The goverment also sais they will start buying stock in US banks. Another good signal for buying opportunities. I wan't to take advantage of this by looking to buy january calls on some strong earning stocks like MOS or LDK.
Bullins options are good in this environment but if you want to play it safe look at buy-writes. (do your own research at wiki if you dont know what this is). Buy writes pay you the premium on the contracts. You can make some good money here.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Energy pioneers eye offshore wind riches
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5:23 PM ET 10/8/08 Marketwatch
RELATED QUOTES
4:06 PM ET 10/8/08
Symbol
Last
% Chg
FPL
41.25
-5.13%
GE
20.65
1.72%
FAN
14.25
-1.90%
POM
20.40
-3.32%
HERO
8.35
1.83%
PDE
20.04
-0.30%
OII
33.87
0.59%
GOOG
338.11
-2.28%
Real time quote.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Few people around the world know how to put up wind farms in the U.S. as well as Hunter Armistead.A financier with a background in fossil fuel power development and finance, Armistead now holds a high-ranking "green collar" job as the chief developer of a flotilla of 20 wind farms in the U.S. for Babcock & Brown , the Australian-based infrastructure, airplane leasing and asset management firm.Even with today's credit crunch and falling energy prices, money continues to flow for new U.S. wind farms, Armistead says, as major wind developers race to build the nation's first offshore project.While facing a shortage of turbines and equipment, a phalanx of government regulations, and testy opposition from coastal communities worried about turbine-obstructed views of the sea, the stormy Atlantic and other locations nevertheless beckon with the promise of some of the richest rewards in the business.Offshore wind promises clean, ample energy in areas that fetch some of the highest electrical rates in the U.S. So while offshore turbines are expected to cost 50% to 70% more to build than land-based systems, they may generate 100% more revenue, wind advocates point out.Besides Babcock & Brown, most the other major onshore wind developers are also diving into the offshore wind craze in some capacity: Energias de Portugal (EDP Group), Iberdrola Renewables, FPL Group (FPL) and Gamesa, among others."The U.S. is kind of like a lumbering giant that's waking up to the fact that they need to come into the world of energy independence," said Armistead, head of Babcock & Brown's North American Energy Development Group. "In the U.S., there's tons of wind."Investing in windWhile no pure-play wind companies trade in the U.S., there are a few ways for investors to tap into any future success in the emerging business.The American Wind Energy Association lists utility giant FPL Group Inc.. (FPL) as the largest company developing U.S.-based wind projects. General Electric (GE) marks the only U.S.-based manufacturer of turbines.Vestas, the world's leading manufacturer of wind turbines, and Nordex, another turbine maker, both trade on the Copenhagen Exchange. Mitsubishi, which trades in Japan, makes some of the largest turbines now in use.Several environmentally-oriented mutual funds and exchange traded funds also provide exposure to wind energy. One such vehicle is the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN).Babcock & Brown bundles up wind farms assets for its Babcock & Brown Wind Partners, a publicly traded wind energy fund in Australia.Industry proponents also point out that the most convenient way for Americans to support wind power development is by participating in green power programs offered by utility companies.Usually more expensive now, green energy rates could become more competitive if the environmental costs of carbon emissions from coal-fired electric plants and other sources get factored into rates under cap-and-trade programs now underway in parts of the U.S. The cost of alternative energy will also come down as it gains in economies of scale.Plenty of challenges face wind development, including a lack of transmission lines, the at-times intermittent nature of wind power, and uncertainties over production tax credits.Rich prospects off shoreIn the global race to build offshore wind turbines to feed a power-hungry grid, Europe leads the U.S. by a score of 1,110 megawatts to zero.With the potential to supply as much as 20% of the U.S.'s growing and critical electrical power needs, proponents often refer to America as the Saudi Arabia of wind. But while giant turbines star in political ads this fall, the U.S. still gets only about 1% of its electricity from breezes. That's starting to change as Texas, California, and many other states complete new land-based wind farms, prodded along by state-enforced renewable portfolio standards. With carbon emissions now auctioned off under the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, wind power could soon offer an additional value as a carbon offsetting vehicle.So far, U.S. offshore wind projects have been scuttled by community opposition, such as the notorious Cape Wind development about five miles off the Massachusetts shore, stymied for years by opponents that included some of the wealthiest residents along Nantucket Sound. Despite the chilly reception, Babcock & Brown moved to leverage its sizeable presence in the onshore market and moved to buy offshore wind developer Bluewater Wind of Hoboken, N.J., for an undisclosed sum in 2007. At the time, Bluewater Wind had been selected to negotiate a contract to provide power in Delaware."We became convinced that the offshore technology had been maturing in Europe and there was good market fundamentals in the Northeast for offshore wind," Babcock & Brown's Armistead said. "The time is arriving for offshore wind in the U.S. and the Bluewater team had a head start."The effort paid off this summer as Bluewater Wind inked the nation's first offshore power purchase agreement in a pact with Delmarva Power, a unit of Pepco Holdings Inc. (POM). With the project's 440-foot towers planned for construction some 12 miles out at sea, Armistead said the wind turbines will be much less visible than others already proposed around the country. The Delaware project and others will take another step forward after the end of the year, when the U.S. Minerals Management Service completes leasing rules for offshore energy projects. See related story.Armistead said Bluewater Wind is now working to draw bids from turbine developers and vendors, in the face of a backlog in equipment. "We're concentrating on the East Coast because the shallow sea floor makes it ideal for offshore wind development," Armistead said. "The continental shelf goes out pretty far and that's really attractive. The wind is strong and the visual aspects are negated."Other projects off the Atlantic coast are also under review in New York and elsewhere, with participation from Bluewater Wind and others. Last month, the State of Rhode Island chose Deepwater Wind to develop a $1 billion wind farm off its coast. Deepwater Wind lists deep-pocketed investors such as First Wind, asset management giant D.E. Shaw and Ospraie Management, an alternative energy asset manager.Babcock & Brown's Armistead maintains that the economics of offshore wind development continue to make sense, although the cost of construction could range 50% to 70% higher than on-shore development.Babcock & Brown's biggest land-based project, Gulf Wind in Texas, will cost about $600 million to build 118 giant turbines to generate 283 megawatts of electric power.Factoring in the current U.S. production tax credit, and a cost of about $5 million for each giant turbine, Babcock & Brown will recoup its investment within seven to nine years, he said.The demand for such projects remains relatively strong, with the value of the electricity and power purchase agreements with utility companies forming the foundation.With offshore wind, similar economics could make the business viable, especially when factoring in the significantly higher price and demand for electricity on the Eastern Seaboard.Brian Uhlmer, senior analyst with Pritchard Capital Partners, said traditional oil and gas drilling rig operators may try to sell their wares to boost the offshore wind, since the industry plans to build in areas less than 400 feet deep -- already in the realm of the shallow water jack-up rig market.Uhlmer noted that General Electric bought oil services firm Vetgo Gray Inc. with plans to develop patents and methods for installing wind turbines on offshore oil rigs."A lot of oil service firms have old rigs that could possibly hold a wind turbine," he said. "The jack-up rigs can go in up to 400 feet of water. Some of the proposed offshore wind farms are only in 200 feet."Even if the old jack-up rigs aren't used, the offshore wind turbines will require some drilling to lay down undersea foundations, he pointed out.Down the road, the offshore wind business could provide a lift for Hercules Offshore (HERO), Pride International (PDE), or Oceaneering International (OII), he said.With lobbying efforts in Washington picking up from the likes of Google (GOOG), Boone Pickens and others, Congress finally moved ahead with plans to renew a production tax credit to fuel industry growth. See full story.Still, the U.S. has a long way to go to catch up to Europe, led by Britain and Denmark, which both boast more than 400 megawatts of offshore wind power.For Armistead, the wind energy business continues to draw him in with its potential."Wind is very fascinating," he said. "It's very capital intensive. It requires a background in finance to arrange capital and get the construction done, but projects come quickly on the development side. For me, it's an excellent combination of development and finance that happens relatively quickly."
Font size: A A A
5:23 PM ET 10/8/08 Marketwatch
RELATED QUOTES
4:06 PM ET 10/8/08
Symbol
Last
% Chg
FPL
41.25
-5.13%
GE
20.65
1.72%
FAN
14.25
-1.90%
POM
20.40
-3.32%
HERO
8.35
1.83%
PDE
20.04
-0.30%
OII
33.87
0.59%
GOOG
338.11
-2.28%
Real time quote.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Few people around the world know how to put up wind farms in the U.S. as well as Hunter Armistead.A financier with a background in fossil fuel power development and finance, Armistead now holds a high-ranking "green collar" job as the chief developer of a flotilla of 20 wind farms in the U.S. for Babcock & Brown , the Australian-based infrastructure, airplane leasing and asset management firm.Even with today's credit crunch and falling energy prices, money continues to flow for new U.S. wind farms, Armistead says, as major wind developers race to build the nation's first offshore project.While facing a shortage of turbines and equipment, a phalanx of government regulations, and testy opposition from coastal communities worried about turbine-obstructed views of the sea, the stormy Atlantic and other locations nevertheless beckon with the promise of some of the richest rewards in the business.Offshore wind promises clean, ample energy in areas that fetch some of the highest electrical rates in the U.S. So while offshore turbines are expected to cost 50% to 70% more to build than land-based systems, they may generate 100% more revenue, wind advocates point out.Besides Babcock & Brown, most the other major onshore wind developers are also diving into the offshore wind craze in some capacity: Energias de Portugal (EDP Group), Iberdrola Renewables, FPL Group (FPL) and Gamesa, among others."The U.S. is kind of like a lumbering giant that's waking up to the fact that they need to come into the world of energy independence," said Armistead, head of Babcock & Brown's North American Energy Development Group. "In the U.S., there's tons of wind."Investing in windWhile no pure-play wind companies trade in the U.S., there are a few ways for investors to tap into any future success in the emerging business.The American Wind Energy Association lists utility giant FPL Group Inc.. (FPL) as the largest company developing U.S.-based wind projects. General Electric (GE) marks the only U.S.-based manufacturer of turbines.Vestas, the world's leading manufacturer of wind turbines, and Nordex, another turbine maker, both trade on the Copenhagen Exchange. Mitsubishi, which trades in Japan, makes some of the largest turbines now in use.Several environmentally-oriented mutual funds and exchange traded funds also provide exposure to wind energy. One such vehicle is the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN).Babcock & Brown bundles up wind farms assets for its Babcock & Brown Wind Partners, a publicly traded wind energy fund in Australia.Industry proponents also point out that the most convenient way for Americans to support wind power development is by participating in green power programs offered by utility companies.Usually more expensive now, green energy rates could become more competitive if the environmental costs of carbon emissions from coal-fired electric plants and other sources get factored into rates under cap-and-trade programs now underway in parts of the U.S. The cost of alternative energy will also come down as it gains in economies of scale.Plenty of challenges face wind development, including a lack of transmission lines, the at-times intermittent nature of wind power, and uncertainties over production tax credits.Rich prospects off shoreIn the global race to build offshore wind turbines to feed a power-hungry grid, Europe leads the U.S. by a score of 1,110 megawatts to zero.With the potential to supply as much as 20% of the U.S.'s growing and critical electrical power needs, proponents often refer to America as the Saudi Arabia of wind. But while giant turbines star in political ads this fall, the U.S. still gets only about 1% of its electricity from breezes. That's starting to change as Texas, California, and many other states complete new land-based wind farms, prodded along by state-enforced renewable portfolio standards. With carbon emissions now auctioned off under the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, wind power could soon offer an additional value as a carbon offsetting vehicle.So far, U.S. offshore wind projects have been scuttled by community opposition, such as the notorious Cape Wind development about five miles off the Massachusetts shore, stymied for years by opponents that included some of the wealthiest residents along Nantucket Sound. Despite the chilly reception, Babcock & Brown moved to leverage its sizeable presence in the onshore market and moved to buy offshore wind developer Bluewater Wind of Hoboken, N.J., for an undisclosed sum in 2007. At the time, Bluewater Wind had been selected to negotiate a contract to provide power in Delaware."We became convinced that the offshore technology had been maturing in Europe and there was good market fundamentals in the Northeast for offshore wind," Babcock & Brown's Armistead said. "The time is arriving for offshore wind in the U.S. and the Bluewater team had a head start."The effort paid off this summer as Bluewater Wind inked the nation's first offshore power purchase agreement in a pact with Delmarva Power, a unit of Pepco Holdings Inc. (POM). With the project's 440-foot towers planned for construction some 12 miles out at sea, Armistead said the wind turbines will be much less visible than others already proposed around the country. The Delaware project and others will take another step forward after the end of the year, when the U.S. Minerals Management Service completes leasing rules for offshore energy projects. See related story.Armistead said Bluewater Wind is now working to draw bids from turbine developers and vendors, in the face of a backlog in equipment. "We're concentrating on the East Coast because the shallow sea floor makes it ideal for offshore wind development," Armistead said. "The continental shelf goes out pretty far and that's really attractive. The wind is strong and the visual aspects are negated."Other projects off the Atlantic coast are also under review in New York and elsewhere, with participation from Bluewater Wind and others. Last month, the State of Rhode Island chose Deepwater Wind to develop a $1 billion wind farm off its coast. Deepwater Wind lists deep-pocketed investors such as First Wind, asset management giant D.E. Shaw and Ospraie Management, an alternative energy asset manager.Babcock & Brown's Armistead maintains that the economics of offshore wind development continue to make sense, although the cost of construction could range 50% to 70% higher than on-shore development.Babcock & Brown's biggest land-based project, Gulf Wind in Texas, will cost about $600 million to build 118 giant turbines to generate 283 megawatts of electric power.Factoring in the current U.S. production tax credit, and a cost of about $5 million for each giant turbine, Babcock & Brown will recoup its investment within seven to nine years, he said.The demand for such projects remains relatively strong, with the value of the electricity and power purchase agreements with utility companies forming the foundation.With offshore wind, similar economics could make the business viable, especially when factoring in the significantly higher price and demand for electricity on the Eastern Seaboard.Brian Uhlmer, senior analyst with Pritchard Capital Partners, said traditional oil and gas drilling rig operators may try to sell their wares to boost the offshore wind, since the industry plans to build in areas less than 400 feet deep -- already in the realm of the shallow water jack-up rig market.Uhlmer noted that General Electric bought oil services firm Vetgo Gray Inc. with plans to develop patents and methods for installing wind turbines on offshore oil rigs."A lot of oil service firms have old rigs that could possibly hold a wind turbine," he said. "The jack-up rigs can go in up to 400 feet of water. Some of the proposed offshore wind farms are only in 200 feet."Even if the old jack-up rigs aren't used, the offshore wind turbines will require some drilling to lay down undersea foundations, he pointed out.Down the road, the offshore wind business could provide a lift for Hercules Offshore (HERO), Pride International (PDE), or Oceaneering International (OII), he said.With lobbying efforts in Washington picking up from the likes of Google (GOOG), Boone Pickens and others, Congress finally moved ahead with plans to renew a production tax credit to fuel industry growth. See full story.Still, the U.S. has a long way to go to catch up to Europe, led by Britain and Denmark, which both boast more than 400 megawatts of offshore wind power.For Armistead, the wind energy business continues to draw him in with its potential."Wind is very fascinating," he said. "It's very capital intensive. It requires a background in finance to arrange capital and get the construction done, but projects come quickly on the development side. For me, it's an excellent combination of development and finance that happens relatively quickly."
I thought I has through with stocks altogether. But the signs continually point to the biggest oversold condition of all time. Yep it's time to buy. Even though the credit mess will take the economy down you have to call a bottom. We almost saw these extremes to the upside 2 years ago. Like then none of the technicians were calling for a reversal of the trends yet it happened. Now, none of the technicians are calling for and end to the downtrend. they dont want to call a bottom when it could keep falling. I dont want to be heroic but come on !! how can the people in charge (those who orchestrated the credit colapse) make any more gambles on a continued downturn. They have to take off the short positions sooner than later. How can hedge funds afford to sell their assests at such depressed values?Somethings not adding up.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Hedge fund vs Mutual fund. Hedge funds are responsible for the liquidations we have seen in our markets. They are over leveraged and have exposure to the downside. That's why they call them hedge funds. Some hedge funds are probably over protected to the downside and like what happened in financial stocks they can create a profit from a selling frenzie. Who knows when the end will come but it will. The market can't keep going down forever. I would wait for sustained buying signals. If not, you will get wipped out every time they "sell the rally".
Monday, October 6, 2008
FLOWERS foods and RAH are still doing well in a safety market. RAH looks overbought. If people start piling back in the market this safety play will reverse and we will see a shorting opportunity. Perhaps a good time to look into a bearish put strategy.
This market is easy to figure out. Take the most logical move and do the opposite. I thought the shorts would keep going up and up but look what happened. The market stopped going down. I guess we were over sold and based on that the shorts are more risky. All signs now point to a rally after next weeks options expiration. Any rally could be over before it comes. In other words if a rally should come next week it might not. Now that I think of it, when the options expire and people move that money where does it go? I'm bouncing any ideas around. I have to get in this market at these levels.
This market is easy to figure out. Take the most logical move and do the opposite. I thought the shorts would keep going up and up but look what happened. The market stopped going down. I guess we were over sold and based on that the shorts are more risky. All signs now point to a rally after next weeks options expiration. Any rally could be over before it comes. In other words if a rally should come next week it might not. Now that I think of it, when the options expire and people move that money where does it go? I'm bouncing any ideas around. I have to get in this market at these levels.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
I'm watching c-span and I'm getting a kick out of the wrangling between Barney Frank from Massachusettes and Congressman Spencer Bauchus from Alabama. They seem to love to argue with each other. Boy I'm showing my age. I thought I'd never actually watch C-Span. My Attention span is getting shorter as I try to figure out If they will pass the finacial markets bill. Washington now holds the fate of the free world in their hands. Did anyone take note the impending threat from terrorist. Now the our nation is at it's weakest shouldn't this is the time to attack. Right? Oh I forgot the our forreign wars are being fought against enemys who cant touch us. Good thing right. Lets face it - property values are so low in USA now nobody want's to aquire us in a military overtaking. Defending our country should have been our mission in the first place not millitary agression. We took our eye off the ball. Now that we have ignorred the economy while fighting imaginary wars we must play catch up on the stuff that really mates to Americans, money.
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