Sunday, November 23, 2008
Big market swings seen at the end of the day in recent trading are thought to be a result of leveraged ETFs. The leaveraged funds (aka: ultra) are buying and selling (shorting) at a margin rate of three to one. The major volatile swings in the stock market occur when a back log of these trades flood the system and massive amounts of capital shift the balance in one direction or the other. Somehow at 3pm all the orders for these massively leveraged funds start crossing the wires and that has caused the market to go up or down by 400 plus points at or near the end of the trading sesion.
DDM - Ultra Dow 30
UYG - Ultra Financials
UXI - Ultra Indutrials
USD - Ultra Semiconductor
DIG - Ultra oil and gas
All of these ultra funds have there equivilant twin to the short side as well. One of my favorites has been the EEV(ultra short emerging markets). My big question is how do we determine the ultras are generating market volitility? Do these funds really have the power to move the market up or down 500 points? I get the whole concept of leverage creating more buy or sell orders but why didn't these funds move more than they did on friday? These funds can be a rewarding way to ride the tide in a boat to recovery but it's a lazy way to invest and I don't condone the risk. Google ishares or Proshares, there you can search for ulra longs and shorts.
DDM - Ultra Dow 30
UYG - Ultra Financials
UXI - Ultra Indutrials
USD - Ultra Semiconductor
DIG - Ultra oil and gas
All of these ultra funds have there equivilant twin to the short side as well. One of my favorites has been the EEV(ultra short emerging markets). My big question is how do we determine the ultras are generating market volitility? Do these funds really have the power to move the market up or down 500 points? I get the whole concept of leverage creating more buy or sell orders but why didn't these funds move more than they did on friday? These funds can be a rewarding way to ride the tide in a boat to recovery but it's a lazy way to invest and I don't condone the risk. Google ishares or Proshares, there you can search for ulra longs and shorts.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Wow what a nightmare. The market does not have legs. All the money that causes recent rallies is obviously trading margin. They don't have the money to leave in the market overnight much less over the weekend. I'm surprised Thurdays Action made it past 4 pm. We will see next week what kind of "bottom" formation is created. Trading has been moving sideways for about a month now. If we make some new highs and hold support we could get some momentum. At least it only cost $45 bucks to fill up my SUV.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
News to note of today would definitely include the Astra Zeneca anti-hyperlipidemia drug Crestor, is supposed to be much better than everyone thought. Or that is what there new study sais. They are claiming the drug is significant in reducing the risk of severe cardiovascular events. A study called "Jupiter" proves the drug can now be recommend for more folks meaning more drug sales. How do we play this? It can be another hype creation publicity stunt created by the manufacture. If it does create hype and a rally in shares of AZN it would produce a shorting opportunity. In my experience most drug stock are quite manipulated to the downside with bad news it's not a frequent occurrence that one gets talked up and it remains up. In other words this could be a good play but get out before the FDA pulls it off the shelves because it causes liver and kidney damage.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Watching shares of FLR this week. I hope to get a follow thru on last week's wild upswing, 20% pop. I think this is a potential infrastructure play that might get some attention with a regieme change in the USA. Holy FSYS batman a 45% pop in this auto and truck parts suplier. They convert things to run on NAT GAS. I thought this would be a speculative short play trap but somehow they shot up 45% in trading on friday. Something wild is going on. There is a lot of attention being diverted from the Natural Gas plays. We might see some action that could last a few months out of this whole sector.
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